Carney: Canada Weighed 'Tail Risk' of US Military Action
Pressed on whether he takes seriously Trump's repeated musings that Canada might one day become the 51st US state, Carney framed the analysis as standard governance rather than alarm. "I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk," he said, offering no specifics on what contingency planning Canada has undertaken. "That's just risk management. That's not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to."
The prime minister described his communication with Trump as ongoing and substantive, saying the two leaders have talked "frequently" — including multiple times since trade talks between the two nations broke down in August. "From my perspective, we have a good relationship in the sense of we can pick up the phone and talk to each other about issues," Carney said.
Ottawa pulled out of the negotiations on Aug. 21, with Carney citing eleventh-hour conditions from Washington that Canadian officials viewed as both unfair and financially harmful to the country.
Beyond the diplomatic strain, Carney detailed a broader push to loosen Canada's dependence on American technology and defense suppliers. That includes seeking alternatives to Elon Musk's Starlink satellite service and reassessing Canada's commitment to buy 88 F-35 fighter jets manufactured in the US. He also signaled interest in strengthening economic links with other global partners, including China — while explicitly ruling out any expansion of military cooperation with Beijing.
Still, Carney suggested the door to a workable deal with Washington remains open. He cited potash — the fertilizer ingredient Canada supplies for the bulk of US imports — as a promising avenue for renewed cooperation, even as Trump revealed earlier in the week that his administration is exploring a separate potash arrangement with Belarus.
Looking ahead, Carney indicated Canada will keep pursuing economic and strategic diversification regardless of who occupies the White House in future administrations.
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